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David Lebovitz

Aug 08, 2025

Haley Byrd Wilt @byrdinator

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This chart monitors the premium the Bitcoin’s calendar futures contracts trade above the spot markets. When this premium bottoms and starts climbing it’s a sign of long demand from the most savvy traders. Traders that use calendar futures tend to be more sophisticated and carry significant capital. This can be a leading sign the market is about to bottom.

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Macro structure: HODLer buying has soften recently with this month’s price pull back, however long term holders remain in a region of peak accumulation. Structurally we are still in a bullish macro region. Despite bearish price action the underlying structure has no signs of a bear market.
Short term: HODLers have been buying the dip. Coins are moving off the exchanges. Coins held by HODLers have been rising, recovering from recent weakness. Our on-chain Supply Shock valuation model implies BTC is presently trading at a $6k+ discount.
Data from derivative exchanges is showing an uptick in demand, a bullish divergence has formed suggesting the bottom may be in.
BTC price action expectation: Price recovery from lows with further consolidation over the weeks of December.
Price action conviction: Medium.

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Scenario 2: OPEN below 4504. I think this scenario could be bearish one especially if we fail to take out 4504 within the IB period + trade below 4480. IB is the first hour of trade. In this case my target will be 4462. An impulse move may test NFP lows around 4440.

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If that was not enough, there is a lot of news flow and event risk. At this point, a strong NFP is a liability. A weak NFP may be good for stocks but should not be at the cost of sagging wage inflation.
Expecting balance conditions unless a close above or below my 4536 or 4480.

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Requiem For a Liberal Internationalism That Never Really Was

Chamber of the United Nations Security Council…

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A post shared by thespeedproject ™️ (@thespeedproject)

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What is this strange sensation? Why does this man think everything will work out? Where is the doom and crushing morosity? How does he live like this?

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